No Stag or Flation in Today’s Jobs Report
After what looked like a reacceleration in the first quarter, today’s Jobs Report shows the labor market returning to its prior trend of gradually normalizing job growth and wage growth.
A Mixed JOLTS Report Highlights the Strange New Normal in the Labor Market
Today’s mixed JOLTS Report suggests that demand for new workers continues to soften, but that layoffs and discharges remain extremely low.
Today’s Jobs Report and the Promise of Noninflationary Growth
As predicted by recent uptick in online job postings, today’s jobs report is strong across the board, with 303K jobs added in March, and the prior two months’ figures revised upwards by a combined 22K.
The Labor Market has Stabilized, According to the Jolts Report, But Other Macro Indicators Suggest a Rebound is Imminent
There are signs that a U.S. labor market rebound is near.
Job Switchers Accept Smaller Pay Increases to Take Remote Roles
Workers in remote jobs generally earn more than those who work in the office, and get bigger raises, according to ZipRecruiter surveys of thousands of job seekers and newly hired workers conducted over the past year.
Inflation is Hotter Than Expected Again
The consumer price index (CPI) and core CPI (which excludes food and energy) came in slightly hotter than expected this morning. The CPI rose 0.4% over the month, with year-over-year inflation rising to 3.2% from 3.1%. Core CPI also rose 0.4% over the month, falling to 3.8% from 3.9%.
A Cooler Jobs Report Points to a Slackening Labor Market
Exactly as we predicted, the February Jobs Report reversed earlier indications of an accelerating labor market and instead showed a market that continues its gradual cooldown.
JOLTS Report Shows Low-Churn Labor Market
The January JOLTS Report contained few fireworks and painted a picture of a stable and steady labor market with considerably less churn than before the pandemic.
Inflation Was Firmer Than Expected Due to the Undersupply of Housing
The consumer price index came in slightly hotter than expected this morning, but showed continued gradual progress in the fight against inflation. The CPI rose 0.3% over the month, with year-over-year inflation falling to 3.1% from 3.4%. Core CPI rose 0.4% over the month, holding steady at 3.9%.
The Best (and Worst) Metro Areas for Jobs in 2023
Employment expanded in the vast majority of metropolitan areas in the U.S. in 2023, with only 8% shedding jobs. That’s according to data released this week by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
A Striking Jobs Report Suggests Stronger Labor Market Than Previously Thought—With Important Caveats
Today’s Jobs Report was truly striking, beating expectations for January and revising 2023 job gains upwards. It was also somewhat confusing, containing indicators of remarkable labor market strength alongside concerning indicators of weakness.
JOLTS Report: 2023 Was the Third-Best Year in the U.S. Labor Market
2023 was a strong year in the labor market according to most key indicators, but also the year with one of the largest labor market contractions on record.
Is It Too Early To Declare “Mission Accomplished” on Inflation?
Personal income and consumer spending both rose at a rate of 0.7% in December, well above the expected 0.5% pace. Incomes were boosted by robust wage growth and rising asset returns, which have expanded Americans’ real disposable personal income—that is, income after taxes and inflation—4.2% over the past year.
Reaction: The Job Market Slowed But Dodged a Recession in 2023
Friday’s Jobs Report was mixed, with solid job gains (+216K) and wage growth (4.1% over the year) in the establishment survey, but weak employment growth (just +72K) and participation-related figures in the household survey. Factoring in downward revisions to the prior months’ figures, the 3-month average job gain was 165K, right in line with the 2019 average, suggesting that the labor market has come back to pre-pandemic normal.
Latest JOLTS Report Shows Slower Hiring and Turnover
Hires and quits slowed meaningfully in November, a sign of weaker employer and employee confidence.
Why 2024 Will Unlock the Second “Roaring Twenties”
The 2020s got off to a rocky start. In 2020, the U.S. suffered job losses of unprecedented magnitude as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic. In 2021, thanks to the end of the stay-at-home mandates, and a population flush with stimulus money, the economy recovered so rapidly that it overheated, creating an acute shortage of labor and rapid inflation. In 2022, the Fed responded to 40-year high inflation with a steady diet of interest rate increases, the fastest interest-rate increase cycle on record. In 2023, both the labor market and inflation have cooled, setting us up for what many economists believed was a low-probability scenario, “the soft landing.”
Inflation Continues to Cool, Ever So Gradually
In November, the CPI rose 0.1% over the month, or 3.1% over the year, and core CPI rose .3% over the month, or 4.0% over the year. Both came in line with expectations.
The Jobs Market is Solid, but Continues to Show Signs of Gradual Deceleration
The November Jobs Report was largely consistent with what economists were expecting.
JOLTS Confirms the Labor Market is Slackening
Signs of the labor market slackening raise the odds that no further interest rate increases will be needed.