Latest JOLTS Report Shows Slower Hiring and Turnover
Latest JOLTS Report Shows Slower Hiring and Turnover
Hires and quits slowed meaningfully in November, a sign of weaker employer and employee confidence.
Key takeaways from today’s JOLTS report
The hiring rate fell to the lowest level since 2014 outside the pandemic, according to today’s Job Opening and Labor Turnover Survey report. The slowdown in hiring was clearly felt by workers, who appeared to get the message that it would be more difficult than it has been in recent year to find a better job. The quits rate fell to 2.2%, below where it was all of 2019 and most of 2018.
Despite slower hiring, however, layoffs did not pick up. The 1.0% layoff rate remains well below the 1.2% average rate seen each year between 2016 and 2019. In other words, employed workers continue to experience greater job security than was typical before the pandemic, at the same time that unemployed workers saw fewer opportunities.
Additional highlights
Interest rate-sensitive industries showed some signs of life. Job openings ticked upwards in construction and durable goods manufacturing, a sign that employers may be gaining confidence now that inflation has cooled and the likelihood of further rate hikes has fallen.
The acyclical industries responsible for the bulk of job gains this past half-year held steady. JOLTS indicators were flat as a pancake in healthcare and the government, two sectors responsible for most of the job growth since July.
Small business hiring trends were more optimistic than those in mid-sized businesses. Job openings and hiring ticked up in the smallest businesses with 1-9 employees, but fell sharply in medium-sized businesses with 50-249 employees. Mid-sized businesses, with their greater reliance on funding from regional banks, may be absorbing more of the impact of the Fed’s monetary tightening.
What’s ahead in 2024?
ZipRecruiter’s real-time online job posting data suggests that hiring will continue to slow in the first quarter of 2024. Many of the changes to hiring plans that companies made in 2023 will only be fully felt in 2024. For example, McKinsey has reduced the size of its 2024 partner class by 35%, and businesses overall are projecting that they’ll hire fewer members of this year’s graduating class of 2024 than they did of last year’s.
The cautious mood among hiring managers could change later in the year, however, if inflation continues to cool and the Fed is able to start lowering interest rates. Investments that don’t currently pencil out in a high-rate environment might get the green light once financial conditions improve.
Take a tour of the report through ZipRecruiter visualizations HERE.
