October Job Openings Rise, Hinting at a Labor Market Rebound

October Job Openings Rise, Hinting at a Labor Market Rebound

Since the last official release of the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report in August, the October JOLTS report suggests the labor market might be starting to turn around. Job openings were up 6.1% in October, from August, and up 8% from a year ago. This marks the first significant annual growth in job openings since July 2022. 

The increase in job openings is a welcomed refresh to a stale labor market with rising unemployment. Job openings have once again topped the unemployment level, meaning there are more jobs available than there are unemployed people looking for work. If this trend continues, employers can expect to see a tighter labor market ahead in 2026 as the labor force continues to retract, and negotiating power is handed back to workers. 

But the increase in job openings has yet to translate into more hiring activity. The hires rate was flat at 3.2% in October, although businesses reported a slight bump in the September data to 3.4%. Continued uncertainty around tariffs and macroeconomic policy could be slowing the hiring process for some employers. But as job openings continue to rise, hires will soon follow suit, even if the pace is slower than expected. 

Workers on the other hand are still feeling stuck in place. The quits rate dropped to 1.8% in October, the lowest level since May 2020. Even older workers are staying put - other separations, a proxy for retirements, was down 8.9% from a year ago. 

Macroeconomic pressures, stubborn inflation, and slow movements from employers are keeping workers in place, at least for now. If existing workers are unwilling to move into the newly open roles, the labor force will become increasingly tight, especially as immigration policy continues to weaken the number of foreign-born workers. 

A note on data quality: This report comes with an unusual caveat. Publication of the official September JOLTS news release was canceled due to a lapse in appropriations. The September estimates included in the October release, such as the hires rate bump, consist of only partial data that businesses self-reported electronically during the shutdown and data collected later in November. Furthermore, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) temporarily suspended use of its monthly alignment methodology for the October 2025 preliminary estimates. These data collection and methodology disruptions mean the September and preliminary October figures should be interpreted with caution, as subsequent revisions may change the overall labor market picture presented here.