July Job Openings Tick Up, But Turnover Remains Low
July Job Openings Tick Up, But Turnover Remains Low
The July Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) showed openings are up from June’s revised numbers, now at 7.3M, but hires are back down as job growth slowed, with the hires rate at 3.2. Layoffs ticked down to 1.0, quits dropped to 1.9, and other separations (retirements) were stable, all signs that market stagnation is once again taking hold as macroeconomic uncertainty rises.
Industry breakdown:
Durable Goods Manufacturing and Wholesale Trade both saw spikes in job opening rates, (+0.9 and +0.8, respectively). But even if hiring picks up in these industries and domestic production and sales increase, the ability to move the final goods from one point to another will be challenging as Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities saw a drop in the job openings rate (-0.9).
Hires decreased across the board, with a few exceptions: Construction (+0.6), Mining and Logging (+0.5), and Arts and Entertainment (+0.4) standing out with hires rising.
Hires are down most in Professional and Business Services where the level of hires dropped by 188K, a significant slow down to an industry that has been performing well in recent months as AI optimism swept through the labor market. The general slowdown in job creation and hiring might be starting to slow further investment in new ventures as employers revert back to focusing on stability.
Layoffs dropped even in the industries that have been most impacted by workforce reductions, like Information (-0.6), Finance and Insurance (-0.3), Professional and Business Services (-0.3), and Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation (-1.0). Similarly to the slowdown in hiring, the drop in layoffs signals that employers are pulling back the reins and are holding tight to the workforces they already have, waiting for prices and rates to settle.
Workers are seeing the same signals and are making the same moves, as quits drop in many industries, except where workers are feeling bolder, like Construction (+0.1) and Mining and Logging (+0.4).
The labor market is going back to the 2025 baseline of low-hire, low-fire as persistent inflation and geopolitical concerns give little confidence that the market will stabilize any time soon. As a result, employers and workers are looking to stay put, and market movement may remain muted as summer turns to fall. The supply of available labor is still shrinking outside of this slowdown, but the effects won’t be fully felt until hiring resumes at a more normal pace. For now, a smaller workforce is met with low turnover, keeping those on the job search largely locked out, and those with employment stuck in their roles until the market starts to move once again.
See more details for this data on our interactive dashboard.
