June Job Openings Slide, But Hiring Finally Catching Up
June Job Openings Slide, But Hiring Finally Catching Up
The June Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) showed openings continued to slide down in June, to 7.4M, but still remained 2.2% above last year's levels. The hires rate ticked up to 3.4%, the quits rate held flat at 2.0%, and layoffs stayed at 1.1%. May was revised to a slightly more balanced position too, with a small bump to both hires and quits and a downward revision to openings.
Put together, the labor market is finding steadier footing, with openings drifting lower while hiring, churn, and separations all hold their ground.
Healthcare pulled back hard, down 147K in openings and accounting for 83% of the total loss in job openings for the month. Hires, however, picked up the pace in Healthcare, signaling better matches being made for the jobs that were available.
Skilled trades kept hiring, with Construction (+0.5pp), Durable Goods Manufacturing (+0.5pp), and Wholesale Trade (+0.4pp) all seeing hires rise, and employers still hungry for more talent in these spaces. Openings were elevated too, up 14K in Construction and 18K in Durable Goods Manufacturing.
Non-durable Goods Manufacturing lagged behind its durable goods counterpart, with a large decrease in openings (-55K) and flat hires, possibly as input prices continue to increase, slowing employer growth and spending.
Leisure and Hospitality and Retail Trade both pulled back, with openings and hires down as volatile inflation and fluctuating gas prices squeeze consumer spending in these segments. Postings slowed (down 86K openings in Leisure) and hiring slipped (down 87K hires in Leisure and 6K in Retail).
Information saw an increase in job openings in June (+18K) but also a large increase in layoffs (+0.4pp to 2.0%). The technology sector has been under the microscope as many wait to see how AI is affecting jobs. It looks more like an increase in turnover as employers figure out what they are looking for within roles, with both openings and layoffs elevated, rather than a reduction in total headcount.
A small increase to churn and more intentional movements from employers may signal that the labor market is heading towards more stable footing, even as headline openings soften. Healthcare is still dominating the headlines, but this month it's for pulling back rather than pulling ahead, and the hiring gains it posted alongside that pullback suggest employers there are getting pickier and more precise.
The labor market in June was cooling, and could continue on this path as inflation remains a wild card. Openings are drifting lower, and the softness in Leisure and Retail points to consumers pulling back before employers do. But hires ticking up even as postings slow is the kind of detail that keeps this from reading as a market losing steam. Whether that holds through the summer will depend a lot on whether prices and consumer spending stabilize or keep sliding.
