May Job Openings Hold Steady, But Hiring Is Still Catching Up
May Job Openings Hold Steady, But Hiring Is Still Catching Up
The May Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) shows that employers are feeling optimistic about the future, with job openings staying steady at 7.6 million. But that optimism has yet to translate to action, with hires still at 3.3%, flat with last month given revisions.
Leisure and Hospitality outperformed with an increase of 95K job openings, and a hires rate of 5.8%.
Wholesale Trade also showed up strong, up 71K with openings, but down on hires (-20K).
Skilled trades in general (Manufacturing, Construction, Mining and Logging) saw increases in openings, but decreases in hirings as the labor mismatch continues for this segment.
Healthcare job openings decreased by 155K in May, as the labor market balances and Healthcare no longer stands as the singular dominant industry.
Finance and Insurance continued its downward slip, with -69K job openings in May, and the lowest hiring rate outside of Government, which despite the low rate, saw an increase in hiring (+32K overall and +11K in Federal).
Employers are slowly accelerating, with openings up but hires lagging. The layoff rate picked up marginally in May, from 1.0% to 1.1%, but not enough to make waves.
Job openings have been up in the last few months, and job growth has been steady and strong, but workers are not yet convinced that the market is swinging in their favor. The quits rate stayed put at 1.9%, with few workers voluntarily leaving their posts. The Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker shows that job switching doesn’t necessarily pay off right now, especially with inflation outpacing wage growth once again, leaving many workers feeling like stability is still their best bet. Other separations, a proxy for retirements, also remained flat in May, signaling that market conditions are not yet ripe for larger waves of movement in the workforce.
The labor market in May was solid, but more confidence in employer decisions is needed before workers are able to feel comfortable making moves. The hiring switch needs to fully turn on for the labor market to feel alive again, and with inflation picking up and consumer confidence falling back in June, that might not come as quickly as we’d hoped.