September CPI: Inflation Inches Higher, Putting the Labor Market on Hold
The September Consumer Price Index Report signals rising inflation. Prices for all urban consumers rose 3.7% over the past year, with a 0.6% jump from August. Inflation is a tax on every paycheck and every payroll. When costs climb this fast, households pull back, employers hold off on hiring, and workers stay put. That’s how higher prices stall the labor market.
June CPI: Core Inflation Cools, But Headline Volatility Threatens Labor Momentum
Inflation cooled significantly in June to 3.5% year-over-year growth. Following a three-year high in May, we just saw the largest one-month CPI decrease in over six years, at -0.4%. This cooling was primarily driven by a sharp drop in energy prices, which served as the largest contributor to the overall decline.
Eggs, Cars, Energy, and Insurance Drive Inflation Higher in January
Inflation started 2025 on an uncomfortable note, with core CPI rising 0.45% month-over-month, its hottest reading since April 2023. Year-over-year, core CPI is up 3.3%, marking a slight acceleration from prior months.
CPI Report: Fed Increasingly Finds Itself in a Tough Spot
For several months earlier in the year, inflation was coming in better than expected. But that is no longer the case. Inflation has recently firmed and become uncomfortably sticky, even as the labor market has continued to cool and slacken.
CPI Report: Positive Real Wage Gains Reduce Chance of Downturn
CPI Inflation declined to 2.5% over the year, the lowest level since February 2021, after the index increased 0.2% month-on-month. Meanwhile, average hourly earnings rose at a significantly faster clip of 3.8%, putting real wage growth over the year at 1.3%.
Time for the Fed to Declare “Mission Accomplished”
Today’s Consumer Price Index report sends a clear message: It is time for the Federal Reserve to declare “mission accomplished” in its war against inflation, stop fighting the economy, and turn its focus to the employment part of its mandate.
June CPI Decline Leaves the Door Open to September Rate Cut
For the first time since the pandemic, overall prices fell in June, surprising economists and increasing the likelihood of a September interest rate cut.
Inflation is Hotter Than Expected Again
The consumer price index (CPI) and core CPI (which excludes food and energy) came in slightly hotter than expected this morning. The CPI rose 0.4% over the month, with year-over-year inflation rising to 3.2% from 3.1%. Core CPI also rose 0.4% over the month, falling to 3.8% from 3.9%.
Inflation Was Firmer Than Expected Due to the Undersupply of Housing
The consumer price index came in slightly hotter than expected this morning, but showed continued gradual progress in the fight against inflation. The CPI rose 0.3% over the month, with year-over-year inflation falling to 3.1% from 3.4%. Core CPI rose 0.4% over the month, holding steady at 3.9%.
Inflation Continues to Cool, Ever So Gradually
In November, the CPI rose 0.1% over the month, or 3.1% over the year, and core CPI rose .3% over the month, or 4.0% over the year. Both came in line with expectations.
Americans Continue to Enjoy Real Wage Gains as Inflation Slows
The consumer price index came in better than expected this morning, showing continued progress in the fight against inflation.
Gradual Disinflation Continues, Despite a Recent Surge in Gas Prices
Topline year-over-year inflation held steady in September at 3.7%, with month-over-month inflation slowing to 0.4% from 0.6% in August, despite the recent surge in gas prices. Core inflation (which excludes energy and food) fell to 4.1% from 4.3% over the year, holding steady at 0.3% over the month.
Inflation is Falling Across a Broadening Set of Categories
Don’t be fooled by the uptick in year-over-year inflation from 3.0% in June to 3.2% in July. Inflation is slowing, and doing so across a broader range of goods and services.
Inflation Moderates Further, CPI Shows
Today’s CPI report shows that the strict monetary policy is working. The topline inflation rate slowed down to 5.0% over the year, and 4.0% on a 3-month annualized basis. This was the smallest 12-month increase since the period ending May 2021, while the super core services inflation that sets the tone for the Fed decelerated slightly in March.
Inflation Comes in Hot, Putting the Fed in a Tough Spot
Despite overall inflation decelerating over the month, both core inflation and super core inflation—core services excluding shelter—accelerated in February. Today’s CPI report indicates that the inflation rate may take longer to reach the 2% target than markets were anticipating.
Inflation Remains Elevated, Signaling More Rate Hikes This Year
Today’s CPI report shows a 0.5% increase in the monthly inflation rate, which is slightly higher than economists were expecting. Going forward, inflation is unlikely to maintain its recent pace of deceleration.