Inflation started 2025 on an uncomfortable note, with core CPI rising 0.45% month-over-month, its hottest reading since April 2023. Year-over-year, core CPI is up 3.3%, marking a slight acceleration from prior months.

For several months earlier in the year, inflation was coming in better than expected. But that is no longer the case. Inflation has recently firmed and become uncomfortably sticky, even as the labor market has continued to cool and slacken. 

CPI Inflation declined to 2.5% over the year, the lowest level since February 2021, after the index increased 0.2% month-on-month. Meanwhile, average hourly earnings rose at a significantly faster clip of 3.8%, putting real wage growth over the year at 1.3%.

Today’s Consumer Price Index report sends a clear message: It is time for the Federal Reserve to declare “mission accomplished” in its war against inflation, stop fighting the economy, and turn its focus to the employment part of its mandate. 

For the first time since the pandemic, overall prices fell in June, surprising economists and increasing the likelihood of a September interest rate cut.

The consumer price index (CPI) and core CPI (which excludes food and energy) came in slightly hotter than expected this morning. The CPI rose 0.4% over the month, with year-over-year inflation rising to 3.2% from 3.1%. Core CPI also rose 0.4% over the month, falling to 3.8% from 3.9%.

The consumer price index came in slightly hotter than expected this morning, but showed continued gradual progress in the fight against inflation. The CPI rose 0.3% over the month, with year-over-year inflation falling to 3.1% from 3.4%. Core CPI rose 0.4% over the month, holding steady at 3.9%.

In November, the CPI rose 0.1% over the month, or 3.1% over the year, and core CPI rose .3% over the month, or 4.0% over the year. Both came in line with expectations.

The consumer price index came in better than expected this morning, showing continued progress in the fight against inflation.

Topline year-over-year inflation held steady in September at 3.7%, with month-over-month inflation slowing to 0.4% from 0.6% in August, despite the recent surge in gas prices. Core inflation (which excludes energy and food) fell to 4.1% from 4.3% over the year, holding steady at 0.3% over the month.

Don’t be fooled by the uptick in year-over-year inflation from 3.0% in June to 3.2% in July. Inflation is slowing, and doing so across a broader range of goods and services.