Gradual Disinflation Continues, Despite a Recent Surge in Gas Prices
Topline year-over-year inflation held steady in September at 3.7%, with month-over-month inflation slowing to 0.4% from 0.6% in August, despite the recent surge in gas prices. Core inflation (which excludes energy and food) fell to 4.1% from 4.3% over the year, holding steady at 0.3% over the month.
A Blowout Jobs Report Shows Strong Job Gains Across the Board
It is hard to find any bad news in today’s jobs report. With an acceleration in job growth to 336K payrolls in September and upward revisions for the prior months, the jobs data is finally consistent with real-time estimates of third-quarter GDP growth. Together, they suggest a summertime boom.
State Employment Trends Continue to Diverge
States where employment has grown rapidly over the past year continue to outperform, and those where employment has been sluggish continue to lag behind. Three of the states with the largest employment gains since the pandemic continued to experience the fastest job growth rates.
A Solid August Jobs Report Shows the Labor Market in a Sweet Spot
According to today’s Jobs Report, the labor market overall is continuing to soar at an ideal cruising altitude—high enough to keep the unemployment rate below 4% while creating more opportunities for workers to come in off the sidelines, but low enough so as not to cause a resurgence of inflation.
The Labor Market is Back to Normal
Today’s JOLTS report largely resolves the puzzling gap between job openings and online job postings
1 in 4 States Still Haven’t Recovered the Jobs Lost in the Pandemic
Nationally, U.S. employment recovered to its pre-pandemic level last June. More than a year later, however, one in four states have yet to recover.
Inflation is Falling Across a Broadening Set of Categories
Don’t be fooled by the uptick in year-over-year inflation from 3.0% in June to 3.2% in July. Inflation is slowing, and doing so across a broader range of goods and services.
Producer Prices Have Grown Just 0.85% Over the Year, Despite Accelerating in July
Producer prices shot up during the pandemic, peaking at a level 19.16% higher than before the pandemic. Over the past year, they have largely stabilized, growing only 0.85% over the year.
The August JOLTS Report Points to Continued Labor Market Resilience
High interest rates have cooled the labor market by causing job openings and quits to normalize, rather than destroying jobs.
A Solid July Jobs Report Increases Potential for a Soft Landing
The July jobs report was yet another goldilocks report, showing both cooling and continued resilience in the labor market. The economy added 187K jobs, and the unemployment rate edged down to 3.5%.
Job Openings Continued Their Graceful Normalization in June
Job openings and quits declined modestly, pointing to gradually normalizing labor market turnover
Real wage growth has returned to its pre-pandemic pace and the gender wage gap has reached its narrowest point on record
In the year through Q2 2023, over-the-year real wage growth finally returned to the pre-pandemic pace of about 1.7%, according to data released today by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Wages still have considerable ground to make up, following two quarters of sub-trend growth, and six straight quarters of real wage declines before that.
Jobs Market Shows Signs of Cooling as Summer Hits
June is a huge month for hiring—for summer jobs, new college graduates, and teens. Given strong recent growth in air travel, restaurant dining, and hotel occupancy—paired with a 15% year-to-date increase in the stock market and a recent rebound in consumer confidence—the June Jobs Report was poised to be another blowout. Instead, it showed signs of the labor market cooling—perhaps the result of the Fed’s rate hikes finally biting.
The May JOLTS Report
Job openings declined by half a million, but 3 of 4 key indicators—hiring, quits, and layoffs—improved, suggesting that the labor market remains robust
The May Jobs Report Sends Mixed Signals
A contradictory May Jobs Report sent mixed signals about the state of the U.S. labor market. The establishment survey was a blockbuster, reporting a 339K payroll job gain; the household survey was a downer, reporting a 310K employment loss and an unusually large increase in the unemployment rate from 3.4% to 3.7%.
U.S. Employee Turnover is Almost Back to Normal
The pandemic unleashed a turnover tsunami, but now the quits rate is almost back to what it was before
The Job Market Slows But Defies Expectations Yet Again
The U.S. labor market has now beaten expectations for over a year.
Labor Productivity Decreased in 2023 Q1 While Labor Costs Remained High
Nonfarm business sector labor productivity—measured as output produced per hour worked—decreased 2.7% in the first quarter of 2023 as output increased by 0.2% and hours worked increased by 3.0%.
Job Openings and Layoffs Normalize as Labor Demand Cools
Job openings reported today by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics fell approximately 4% in March, following the trend seen in online job postings. Meanwhile, layoffs and discharges rose 16%, nearing pre-pandemic levels. Both shifts show that demand for labor is cooling overall.
Inflation Moderates Further, CPI Shows
Today’s CPI report shows that the strict monetary policy is working. The topline inflation rate slowed down to 5.0% over the year, and 4.0% on a 3-month annualized basis. This was the smallest 12-month increase since the period ending May 2021, while the super core services inflation that sets the tone for the Fed decelerated slightly in March.