Latest JOLTS Report Shows Slower Hiring and Turnover
Hires and quits slowed meaningfully in November, a sign of weaker employer and employee confidence.
Why 2024 Will Unlock the Second “Roaring Twenties”
The 2020s got off to a rocky start. In 2020, the U.S. suffered job losses of unprecedented magnitude as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic. In 2021, thanks to the end of the stay-at-home mandates, and a population flush with stimulus money, the economy recovered so rapidly that it overheated, creating an acute shortage of labor and rapid inflation. In 2022, the Fed responded to 40-year high inflation with a steady diet of interest rate increases, the fastest interest-rate increase cycle on record. In 2023, both the labor market and inflation have cooled, setting us up for what many economists believed was a low-probability scenario, “the soft landing.”
Inflation Continues to Cool, Ever So Gradually
In November, the CPI rose 0.1% over the month, or 3.1% over the year, and core CPI rose .3% over the month, or 4.0% over the year. Both came in line with expectations.
The Jobs Market is Solid, but Continues to Show Signs of Gradual Deceleration
The November Jobs Report was largely consistent with what economists were expecting.
JOLTS Confirms the Labor Market is Slackening
Signs of the labor market slackening raise the odds that no further interest rate increases will be needed.
Americans Continue to Enjoy Real Wage Gains as Inflation Slows
The consumer price index came in better than expected this morning, showing continued progress in the fight against inflation.
The Post-Pandemic Labor Market Rollercoaster is Over
After the labor market rollercoaster of 2020 to 2022, the labor market has eased back into its usual rhythms—so much so that the JOLTS report is no longer a headline-grabber and has once again become a snooze fest.
The Pandemic-Related Public-Private Sector Pay Gap is Finally Narrowing
According to today’s Employment Cost Index report, wage disinflation slowed, and so did real wage growth. Private sector wages and salaries rose 4.5% over the year, down only 0.1 percentage points from last quarter, and over-the-year real wage growth fell from 1.7% to 0.8% in Q3. Wage growth for public sector workers surged, however, after lagging behind since early in the pandemic.
Gradual Disinflation Continues, Despite a Recent Surge in Gas Prices
Topline year-over-year inflation held steady in September at 3.7%, with month-over-month inflation slowing to 0.4% from 0.6% in August, despite the recent surge in gas prices. Core inflation (which excludes energy and food) fell to 4.1% from 4.3% over the year, holding steady at 0.3% over the month.
Pay Trends Amid Rising Pay Transparency
It is becoming standard practice for employers to publish salary information in job descriptions, but determining the right number to post remains challenging. Almost half of employers have reduced pay for certain roles over the past year, even as 4 in 10 say they are unable to fill vacancies at current wage levels.
The Top 10 Talent Acquisition Challenges of 2023
Top takeaway: Employers report that they’re still facing a tough labor market—talent acquisition teams report struggling to find suitable candidates, connect with them before it’s too late, stave off competition from other employers, recruit more diverse talent, navigate complex and poorly integrated technology systems, and keep pace with the latest industry advancements, including the emergence of generative AI.
Beyond Degrees: Rethinking Qualifications in the Skills-First Era
Employers are ditching degrees and embracing skills-based hiring—especially in the wake of skills shortages, post-pandemic college enrollment declines, and a widely acknowledged college affordability crisis.
Remote or RTO?: Employers and Workers Meet in the Middle
As employers explore different remote work and return to office policies, one thing remains clear—most U.S. companies are done with the five-day in-office work week.
A Blowout Jobs Report Shows Strong Job Gains Across the Board
It is hard to find any bad news in today’s jobs report. With an acceleration in job growth to 336K payrolls in September and upward revisions for the prior months, the jobs data is finally consistent with real-time estimates of third-quarter GDP growth. Together, they suggest a summertime boom.
State Employment Trends Continue to Diverge
States where employment has grown rapidly over the past year continue to outperform, and those where employment has been sluggish continue to lag behind. Three of the states with the largest employment gains since the pandemic continued to experience the fastest job growth rates.
A Solid August Jobs Report Shows the Labor Market in a Sweet Spot
According to today’s Jobs Report, the labor market overall is continuing to soar at an ideal cruising altitude—high enough to keep the unemployment rate below 4% while creating more opportunities for workers to come in off the sidelines, but low enough so as not to cause a resurgence of inflation.
The Labor Market is Back to Normal
Today’s JOLTS report largely resolves the puzzling gap between job openings and online job postings
1 in 4 States Still Haven’t Recovered the Jobs Lost in the Pandemic
Nationally, U.S. employment recovered to its pre-pandemic level last June. More than a year later, however, one in four states have yet to recover.
Inflation is Falling Across a Broadening Set of Categories
Don’t be fooled by the uptick in year-over-year inflation from 3.0% in June to 3.2% in July. Inflation is slowing, and doing so across a broader range of goods and services.