Eggs, Cars, Energy, and Insurance Drive Inflation Higher in January
Inflation started 2025 on an uncomfortable note, with core CPI rising 0.45% month-over-month, its hottest reading since April 2023. Year-over-year, core CPI is up 3.3%, marking a slight acceleration from prior months.
January Jobs Report: A Tighter Labor Market, but Growth Remains Uneven
The U.S. labor market tightened unexpectedly in January, defying expectations of stabilization. Employers added 143,000 jobs, enough to push the unemployment rate down to 4.0%, even as labor force participation edged up.
Labor Market Stalls as Job Openings Retreat
The labor market showed little movement in December, according to the latest JOLTS report, as an uptick in job openings the prior month proved short-lived. Openings fell back to their November level, reinforcing the broader cooling trend that has characterized the past year.
Jobs Report: The Labor Market Closed Out 2024 Better than Expected
The U.S. labor market ended 2024 with a surprising burst of strength, capping a sluggish two-year stretch with its best performance since the first quarter.
JOLTS Report: Labor Market Steady, But Signs of a Turnaround Emerge
The labor market showed little movement in November, according to the latest JOLTS report, but remains significantly softer than it was a year ago.
CPI Report: Fed Increasingly Finds Itself in a Tough Spot
For several months earlier in the year, inflation was coming in better than expected. But that is no longer the case. Inflation has recently firmed and become uncomfortably sticky, even as the labor market has continued to cool and slacken.
The December Jobs Report: Payroll Gains Aren’t What They Seem
Don’t be misled by the seemingly solid payroll gain of 227,000. Today’s Jobs Report offers little evidence of a labor market rebound.
A Mixed October JOLTS Report Points to a Stable Labor Market
The labor market is steady, according to today’s JOLTS Report, but substantially weaker than it was a year ago.
Holiday Hiring Trends: E-commerce Takes the Lead—Yet Again
The most recent job openings report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics appeared to foreshadow a weak 2024 holiday hiring season. Similarly, ZipRecruiter data on nationwide online job postings pointed to a slow start.
Weak Jobs Report Reflects Storms, Strikes, and the Ongoing Labor Market Slowdown
Today’s weaker-than-expected jobs report not only reflected the effects of storms and strikes, but also of the continued labor market cooldown which has taken place since the Fed began raising interest rates more than two years ago.
September JOLTS Report Suggests Continued Labor Market Cooling
Hires ticked up, according to today’s JOLTS Report, but the slide in job openings and quits, paired with the spike in layoffs, signal a labor market which likely continued to soften, despite the stronger-than-expected headline numbers in the September Jobs Report.
August JOLTS Report Points to Continued Cooling
The labor market has been cooling for more than two years. Initially, the slowdown signaled normalization from the post-pandemic rehiring frenzy and Great Resignation. But when the labor market returned to pre-pandemic conditions and kept cooling, labor market observers began to voice concerns about the damage restrictive monetary policy could wreak if sustained for too long.
CPI Report: Positive Real Wage Gains Reduce Chance of Downturn
CPI Inflation declined to 2.5% over the year, the lowest level since February 2021, after the index increased 0.2% month-on-month. Meanwhile, average hourly earnings rose at a significantly faster clip of 3.8%, putting real wage growth over the year at 1.3%.
August Jobs Report Leaves the Overall Picture Little Changed
The U.S. economy added 142K jobs in August, but totals for the prior two months were revised downwards by a combined 86K, leaving the overall picture much the same. The labor market has slowed and slackened over the past three months, with job growth in the private sector outside of healthcare and social assistance falling to an unusually slow pace.
JOLTS Report: Labor Market Cooled Substantially in July
Just as the weak July Jobs Report alarmed observers and sparked a market selloff last month, the July JOLTS Report released today too shows a sharp deterioration in labor market conditions.
Time for the Fed to Declare “Mission Accomplished”
Today’s Consumer Price Index report sends a clear message: It is time for the Federal Reserve to declare “mission accomplished” in its war against inflation, stop fighting the economy, and turn its focus to the employment part of its mandate.
Jobs Report: The Labor Market Has Deteriorated
There are two main takeaways from today’s Jobs Report. The first is that labor markets in the private sector excluding healthcare and social assistance have deteriorated rapidly and are now anemic. The second is that American households are feeling the effects.
JOLTS Report: Labor Market Now Slacker Than Before Pandemic
The labor market is now slacker and slower than before the pandemic, and the pace of hiring is the slowest it has been since 2014, outside of the brief pandemic recession.
June CPI Decline Leaves the Door Open to September Rate Cut
For the first time since the pandemic, overall prices fell in June, surprising economists and increasing the likelihood of a September interest rate cut.
The Jobs Report Signals a Labor Market Deceleration
There are two main takeaways from today’s Jobs Report. The first is that the labor market has cooled off significantly. The second is that leading indicators in the report and from other sources signal further cooling ahead.