August Job Openings Show Lackluster Movement
August Job Openings Show Lackluster Movement
Despite the strong job gains in August, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report shows a labor market that is still stuck in low gear. Employers picked up hiring slightly, but falling job openings and flat quits show there’s still very little movement beneath the surface.
Job openings fell by 256K, quits were flat, but hires and layoffs both showed minor improvements as employers were picking up some activity within the month. Low turnover is still dominating this labor market, and with Fed rate hikes already kicking off this fall, it is likely that it will sustain the next few JOLTS reports.
Job openings
Job openings fell back slightly to 7.1 M. Along with stronger job gains, that could point to employers moving faster and finding better matches for the job openings that exist. But that momentum could be short lived as inflation and interest rates cause more hesitation from employers.
The job openings rate fell the most, proportionately, in Real Estate and Rental and Leasing (-1.7pp), Other Services (-0.7pp), and Construction (-0.6pp) and Wholesale Trade (-0.6pp). Housing affordability concerns could have impacted both real estate and construction, which will continue to be the story now that mortgage rates are sitting over 7%.
Job openings are up in Information (+1.5pp), but that likely won’t change the tune of job loss for this industry, as hires were down (-0.6pp).
Hires
The hires rate ticked up to 3.3, adding 46K more hires in August than July. A decline in job openings but an increase in hires could mean employers were moving faster, leading to more job growth within the month, but the small change in hires still leaves the level and the rate down from earlier this summer.
Hires were up the most in Non-durable Goods Manufacturing (+0.6pp), Mining and Logging, Private Education, and Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation (all up 0.4pp).
Construction and Information saw the biggest loss in hires, down 0.6pp each.
Separations
The quits rate story remains unchanged, with the rate at 1.9. Workers are hesitant to leave, and will remain so until the job market shows more positive momentum and the story of struggle for long-term unemployment improves. Workers now value the stability of the job they know over the uncertainty of another opportunity, especially as those opportunities remain few and far between.
Layoffs ticked down to 1.0 as employers slowly started to expand rather than contract in August. While higher interest rates will start to show up in the data in the September reports, it is unlikely layoffs will change much, instead, employers will pull back on hiring and openings to slow growth, as has been the strategy for the last year and a half or so of the low-churn market.
What’s next
The labor market is still on shaky ground, and nothing in the last few reports solidifies a trend in any direction. Even within August, we saw much stronger than expected job growth, and a decline in job openings. The only constant through line in the 2026 labor market has been uncertainty, and the battle between inflation and interest rates will continue to shape employer and worker expectations and movements for the months to come.